By: Logan Griffiths
Predicting NFL game outcomes has always intrigued fans and analysts but remains challenging. As the season nears its end with substantial data collected, can we accurately determine which team has an edge?
For the past three months, I have developed a formula to predict NFL outcomes – a comprehensive model that combines offensive EPA (expected points added), defensive EPA, point differential and strength of schedule to simulate game results. By running thousands of simulations, we can calculate win probabilities and project potential playoff scenarios.
Through this approach, we’re not just analyzing past performances – we’re creating a framework for understanding how teams stack up against each other.
Let’s explore how win probabilities are calculated, the key components of our model, and how this data can bring clarity to the most unpredictable moments in football.
Step 1: Calculating Team Performance Metrics
Offensive EPA – Measures how effective a team’s offense is in contributing to scoring.
Defensive EPA – Reflects a defenses ability to prevent scoring.
Points Differential: A measure of how much a team scores relative to what it allows.
Strength of Schedule (SOS): Accounts for the difficulty of opponents faced.
Step 2: Defining the Win Probability Formula
The win probability formula balances:
- Offensive and Defensive EPA
- Points Differential per Game
- Strength of Schedule
- Random Variation (to simulate real-word unpredictability)
Step 3: Simulating Thousands of Games
The simulate_game function compares two teams based on their calculated scores and simulates the outcome. This process is repeated thousands of times to estimate win probabilities.
What This Means
By combining modern football metrics with simulation techniques, this code offers:
- Accurate predictions of game outcomes
- Data-backed insights into team strengths
- A framework for projecting playoff scenarios
The result is a tool that goes beyond gut feelings and historical records to provide a statistical edge in understanding the NFL landscape.
Playoff Predictions Wild Card
After the simulation here is how our simulation expects the season and the Playoffs will play out for the 24-25 NFL Season.
Mathletic Sports + 
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