Mathletic Sports +

By: Logan Griffiths

Picking the favorite is something that often times seems undeniable. What if there was a strategy that capitalized on the overhype around the favorites, potentially leading you to more profit? Your answer would be the “Fade.”

Fading, is betting against the favorite. The idea of a fade gears toward when often the public overestimates the chances of a favored team, this will lead them to inflated odds on the underdog. By fading the favorite, you can potentially snag valuable betting opportunities, like I’ve said in previous post its all about value.

Identify what is Worth Fading

Not all favorites are created equal. Look for teams that have one of these characteristics:

Public Perception: Are they a trendy team with a lot of media?

Recent Performance: Have they been on a hot streak, potentially inflating their skill.

Matchup Difference: Does the point spread seem to large compared to the actually skill differential between the teams.

Find the Reason to Fade

Fading doesn’t mean just betting against the favorite. Research the underdog, and find the reason you should fade.

Injuries: Are there key players missing from the favored team that could even the playing field?

Historical Trends (my personal favorite): Has this underdog historically performed well against the favored team in similar situations.

Motivational Factors: Is the underdog on the brink of elimination, what other factors could be the make or break.

Odds and Values

Fading isn’t just about picking underdogs. The key factor is finding value in the odds offered by the sports books.

Compare lines around different sports books to ensure you’re getting the best possible odds on your fade.

**REMINDER** Just because you’re fading the favorite doesn’t mean you should go all-in. I know that the outcome of the bet looks good, but remain to your budget.

Not a Guaranteed Path to Success

Though we can take strategies and implement them in our hobby of sports betting, no strategy will completely revamp your outlook on betting. Fading can be an amazing strategy, but it isn’t a free lane to becoming rich.

Here are Key Reminders to Takeaway:

Favorites Win for a Reason: Don’t underestimate the talent and experience of the favored team.

The Public Perspective can Shift: People often run on the same instincts, which means that they can easily switch to the underdog that causes a late surge in odd changes. Beware of what the public thinks, at the end of the day you are betting against them and the books.

Discipline is Key: Stick to analyzing and don’t chase losses by blindly fading. This is reckess.

REMEMBER, fading is one among many tools in your sports betting tool kit. By using this strategy among many, with proper research, you can potentially exploit overvalued favorites and add another dimension to your betting approach.