Today’s topic is values; an important thing about betting is understanding when you have a higher probability of winning than the sports book itself. Today’s value topic will be about how to win more MoneyLine parlays. Value is based on the odds provided by the sports book and the actual probability of the team winning.
Let’s get this simple: this is not a 100% hit rate. This system is compiled of logical bets that will add to an overall parlay with odds of +200, meaning that you will make $200 if you place $100 down. All it takes not to lose your money is to hit 1/3 of the time.
Here is an example of this in form of a parlay:
- Memphis @ Temple: Memphis –310
- St. Peters @ Quinnipiac: Quinnipiac -380
- Montana @ N Arizona: Montana –285
- Marist @ Siena: Marist – 205
Total Odds: +235
Many betters are superstitious when choosing favorites, which is very understandable. It is commonly known not to place bets on high money lines because the risk is far higher than the reward, which is very accurate, but when we consider the math and probability of these, it becomes favored for us.
Memphis @ Temple: Memphis –310
- Memphis has a record of 16-6 going into the matchup vs 8-14 Temple, the record already represents a clear mismatch.
- Based off ESPN’s analytics Memphis has a 75.5% chance of winning this game.
- Temple has lost their last 7 games (all conference play), now facing another in-conference opponent this result does not seem likely to change.
St. Peters @ Quinnipiac: Quinnipiac – 380
- Quinnipiac has a record of 18-4 going into this matchup vs 11-9 St. Peters.
- Based on ESPN’s analytics Quinnipiac has an 81.4% chance of winning this game.
- Quinnipiac are 11-1 in their last 12 games.
- Quinnipiac is 10-1 in conference play.
Montana @ N Arizona: Montana – 285
- Montana has a record of 15-8 going into this matchup vs 10-13 N Arizona
- Based on ESPN’s analytics Quinnipiac has a 77.0% chance of winning this game.
Marist @ Siena: Marist – 205
- Marist has a record of 11-9 going into the game vs 3-19 Siena.
- Based on ESPN’s analytics Marist has an 85.2% chance of winning this game.
Total Betting Odds: +235
One of the most important factors to understand if you have a game that beats the odds is how likely the team will win the matchup. Betting odds are designed to correlate with the chance of winning. For example, (-100 and +100) are equal to a 50% chance of winning the game, (-200) is equal to 66.70% so far, and so forth. That said, it is essential to find bets that are equivalent or have more value than their odds. In this case, all these bets have the same or more value.
The parlay that we have created has betting odds of +235, which would usually have a 30% chance of winning. Let me show you how with this parlay we beat the odds:
Memphis Chance of Winning: 75.5%
Quinnipiac Chance of Winning: 81.4%
Montana Chance of Winning: 77.0%
Marist Chance of Winning: 85.2%
With this we have an average chance of winning at 79.78%, but that’s not what we are looking for. By using the equation P(AnBnCnD) which is the probability equation for multiple events chances of having the outcome we are looking for. In this case by inputting our percentages into a probability calculator we get a chance of 40.32% which is 10.32% higher than the average outcome of our parlay. On top of this information by analyzing the average winning percentage of a 4-leg parlay (7.52%) we have significantly beat the odds with this parlay.
Mathletic Sports + 
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